Other possible indicators of loss of hope: fewer new business startups (we are not seeing this), more corruption and authoritarianism in government (we are seeing this), lower household savings rate (we are seeing this), male labor force participation rate (we are seeing this). I look forward to your future posts.
I'd always heard the rate of business start-ups correlated with immigration (which has been high) but I can see how it might link to hope also.
It would be interesting to find out whether "male labor-force participation rate" was inversely correlated at all (certainly not completely) with female labor force participation. If we determined that declines in male labor force participation were a sign of loss of hope, would we assume the same thing about declines in female labor force participation? Perhaps female "hopefulness" could be roughly modeled using a combination of female labor force participation and fertility. If that worked, I wonder what a second proxy variable specific to men would be?
If you know of any sources for trends on these metrics I'd love to know. Thanks!
Other possible indicators of loss of hope: fewer new business startups (we are not seeing this), more corruption and authoritarianism in government (we are seeing this), lower household savings rate (we are seeing this), male labor force participation rate (we are seeing this). I look forward to your future posts.
Interesting ideas!
I'd always heard the rate of business start-ups correlated with immigration (which has been high) but I can see how it might link to hope also.
It would be interesting to find out whether "male labor-force participation rate" was inversely correlated at all (certainly not completely) with female labor force participation. If we determined that declines in male labor force participation were a sign of loss of hope, would we assume the same thing about declines in female labor force participation? Perhaps female "hopefulness" could be roughly modeled using a combination of female labor force participation and fertility. If that worked, I wonder what a second proxy variable specific to men would be?
If you know of any sources for trends on these metrics I'd love to know. Thanks!
That explains why business startups are staying strong! (Maybe hope is still strong in the US compared to other places.)
Female labor force participation peaked around 2000, declining since. Male LFP has been steadily declining since the 1950s.
Men: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/LNU01300001
Women: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/seriesBeta/LNU01300002
Savings: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/seriesBeta/PSAVERT
Perceptions of corruption: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/corruption-index